Darwin Catholic Lifts the Election Fog

Darwin Catholic has been an incredible resource in debunking a lot of the election conspiracy bs that is going around, and his latest is an incredibly thorough debunking of a work of speculative fiction from the Spectator. It’s worth your time to go through and read it all because he provides copious amounts of data and evidence to demonstrate that the continued stolen election narrative lacks any merit.

I have a little bit of data to buttress Darwin’s post. I went through the Congressional election results in four of the swing states Trump lost: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and Georgia, as well as a couple he won – Florida and North Carolina. I also looked at a couple of “Trumpier states” – Missouri and Indiana – to provide some additional context. I wanted to see if Trump’s numbers were dramatically different than Congressional Republican numbers or if Biden was dramatically ahead of Democratic Congressional candidates. I also was looking to see if there were huge disparities between presidential and congressional total vote tallies where the presidential votes were significantly higher. There’s always going to be some roll-off where people cast presidential ballots and nothing else, but if the roll-off was unusually high then it would provide some evidence that there was some ballot-stuffing in favor of Joe Biden.

First, here’s the states Trump lost. The number on the left is Trump’s vote compared to the GOP House candidates, the second is Biden compared to the Democrats, and the third is the amount of two-party presidential ballots compared to the total ballots case in Congressional races, or roll-off..

Pennsylvania- Trump: -100,604. Biden: +109,539. Roll-off: 8,895
Georgia- Trump: -15,889, Biden: +68,748. Roll-off: 52,859
Michigan- Trump: -105,267, Biden: +252,751. Roll-off: 147,484
Arizona- Trump: +33,627. Biden: +32,368. Roll-off: 65,995

Now for the Trump states”

North Carolina- Trump: +127,437, Biden: +23,757. Roll-off: 151,194
Florida- Trump: +199,567, Biden: +354,758. Roll-off: 554,325
Indiana- Trump: -8,895, Biden: +47,595. Roll-off: 38,700
Missouri Trump: -5,607, Biden: +80,667. Roll-off: 75,060

A couple of notes. While it seems North Carolina slightly bucks the trend with Trump outperforming the GOP, a Democrat ran unopposed in the12th district and received all 341,457 votes. That likely skews the results. In Florida’s 25th, meanwhile, the Republican ran unopposed but zero votes were tallied (at least by CNN’s vote tracker) which means Trump +199,567 over Florida Republicans is likely actually a deficit, and the overall overvote is also significantly less and more in line with the other states.

If something were truly fishy, then there should not have been this level of consistency. Granted, I did not look at every state, but the results in these states tell the same story. Additionally, I lloked at the state percentages from both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and they also show a consistent pattern. Trump slightly surpassed his vote percentage from four years ago in 38 states, while Biden surpassed Clinton in all but two states, and often by 3-4 points.

The numbers do not support claims of massive vote fraud.